Dear colleagues:
My thanks to everyone who participated in the meeting today.
As I left the meeting the Language and Literature chair passed me page 86
from the book "Six Practice TOEFL Tests" and indicated that this conversion
table was more accurate than the one provided to me on the weekend.
I gather the chair did actually fall down on a trail on Saturday injuring his
foot and hitting his head hard enough on a tree limb or some other blunt object
such as to cause a concussion and a trip to the hospital. The chair
appears to be all right except for a limp. I will presume that the second
wrong table I was given is related to his condition on Saturday.
I have now spent another evening crunching numbers with my family wonders
when it will all come to a final conclusion and they might see something other
than the back of my head in front of a computer. My wife just looks at the
screen and says, "Wasn't that what you were doing the other evening?"
I have learned something valuable: the TOEFL test is, for our students,
highly sensitive the exact number one picks as the cut-off. Moving the
number by one or two correct on the raw score shifts dozens of students.
I have also learned that the gap I need to worry about is not the vertical
gap between my least squares (best fit) linear regression (line) but the
horizontal gap. And the horizontal gap at TOEFL 400 is large: 2.59
points. This creates an actual difference of 3 points, which makes for
substantive changes in the numbers. As a result I have abandoned the
linear regression and gone to using the tables directly. I have used a
special function in spreadsheets called VLOOKUP to look up the correct TOEFL
conversion from the table. This means that now some scores that sit in the
middle of a range go to the bottom of the range. Both a 30 and a 31 on the
reading section are now a 460, while a 32 is a 470. So there now is no
difference between a 30 and a 31.
The hour is late and I have an 8:00 A.M. final tomorrow, so here are some
of the other statistics I have generated this evening:
The new cut-offs (minimum raw scores):
| Natl struct |
24 |
| Natl read |
32 |
| Sum |
56 |
| IEP struct |
16 |
| IEP read |
21 |
Number of students impacted:
The new distribution of students:
| Number
code |
Count |
Location |
| 1 |
465 |
State |
| 2 |
383 |
IEP |
| 3 |
511 |
National |
The following is the old distribution in the leftmost column and the new
distribution in the bottom row:
| Count - Newplace |
Newplace |
|
|
|
| ProjDest |
1 |
2 |
3 |
Total
Result |
| 1 |
440 |
|
|
440 |
| 2 |
23 |
202 |
|
225 |
| 3 |
2 |
181 |
511 |
694 |
| Total
Result |
465 |
383 |
511 |
1359 |
440 were assigned to certificate programs and are still assigned to
certificate programs.
225 were assigned to the IEP, that number grows to 383. 181 leave
group 3 ("national") and drop down to IEP. IEP, meanwhile, drops 23
students to the certificate level.
694 were assigned to group 3 ("national" or post-IEP), that drops to
511. Note 2 students are dropped down to the certificate level.
Note that I reported in the meeting that 355 students were affected, the
new new table affects only 206. Next year I would ask that the official
table be turned over to Ringlen at the time the test is submitted because the
results are so sensitive to the table used. We MUST abandon the use of the
TOEFL.
The faulty table (the first one) generated the following distribution by
high school:
| Count - ProjDest |
ProjDest |
|
|
|
| HS |
1 |
2 |
3 |
Total
Result |
| Berea |
10 |
5 |
9 |
24 |
| CCA |
|
|
9 |
9 |
| CHS |
178 |
50 |
40 |
268 |
| CSDA |
3 |
1 |
9 |
13 |
| KHS |
10 |
27 |
89 |
126 |
| KSC |
2 |
1 |
6 |
9 |
| Mizpah |
3 |
8 |
11 |
22 |
| NCHS |
9 |
1 |
1 |
11 |
| NICHS |
7 |
8 |
14 |
29 |
| Ohwa |
2 |
3 |
5 |
10 |
| OIHS |
3 |
4 |
21 |
28 |
| PATS |
1 |
3 |
20 |
24 |
| PICS |
19 |
40 |
266 |
325 |
| PLHA |
19 |
12 |
7 |
38 |
| PPSD |
|
1 |
22 |
23 |
| PSDA |
|
1 |
21 |
22 |
| SCA |
3 |
6 |
33 |
42 |
| SNHS |
66 |
16 |
7 |
89 |
| Weno |
87 |
18 |
8 |
113 |
| Xavier |
|
|
26 |
26 |
| YHS |
16 |
20 |
67 |
103 |
| YSDA |
2 |
|
3 |
5 |
| Total
Result |
440 |
225 |
694 |
1359 |
The new new table generates the following new distribution:
| Count - Newplace |
Newplace |
|
|
|
| HS |
1 |
2 |
3 |
Total
Result |
| Berea |
12 |
7 |
5 |
24 |
| CCA |
|
|
9 |
9 |
| CHS |
185 |
67 |
16 |
268 |
| CSDA |
4 |
3 |
6 |
13 |
| KHS |
13 |
42 |
71 |
126 |
| KSC |
2 |
4 |
3 |
9 |
| Mizpah |
3 |
13 |
6 |
22 |
| NCHS |
10 |
|
1 |
11 |
| NICHS |
7 |
15 |
7 |
29 |
| Ohwa |
2 |
5 |
3 |
10 |
| OIHS |
3 |
11 |
14 |
28 |
| PATS |
1 |
5 |
18 |
24 |
| PICS |
23 |
98 |
204 |
325 |
| PLHA |
20 |
15 |
3 |
38 |
| PPSD |
|
7 |
16 |
23 |
| PSDA |
|
5 |
17 |
22 |
| SCA |
3 |
16 |
23 |
42 |
| SNHS |
67 |
18 |
4 |
89 |
| Weno |
90 |
21 |
2 |
113 |
| Xavier |
|
|
26 |
26 |
| YHS |
18 |
29 |
56 |
103 |
| YSDA |
2 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| Total
Result |
465 |
383 |
511 |
1359 |
The directors should be able to work from the above table to determine
their new IEP numbers. I reported to Director Kephas in the meeting that
64 (not 89) would be eligible for the "national" campus (post-IEP), but the new
new table puts 71 into the "national" campus. I use quotes because
Director Weilbacher rightfully reminded me that degree programs such as HRM are
offered at Pohnpei State Campus. Off-island students can dorm in Palikir
and attend HRM at Pohnpei campus.
The new new table also ups the number of IEP students from 32 (27 under the
original faulty table) to 41, principally at the expense of the certificate
programs. Only 13 are eligible for certificate programs (10 under the
original faulty table).
As I noted earlier, no matter what table is used, underlying improvement in
teaching at KHS seems to have an impact there.
In Yap, YHS + OIHS + NICHS + YSDA yields an IEP of 57 or so.
Likewise the other states can tally the new numbers and then make their own
adjustment for the known acceptance rate.
The TOEFL conversion I am now is below, with column one the raw score and
column four the most recently received table (one might note that the May 10 and
May 12 tables are very different in certain ranges):
| Raw |
Converted |
TOEFL 0510 |
TOEFL 0512 |
| 0 |
20 |
200 |
210 |
| 2 |
22 |
220 |
220 |
| 3 |
23 |
230 |
230 |
| 5 |
24 |
240 |
250 |
| 6 |
24 |
240 |
260 |
| 8 |
25 |
250 |
270 |
| 9 |
26 |
260 |
280 |
| 11 |
27 |
270 |
300 |
| 12 |
28 |
280 |
310 |
| 14 |
31 |
310 |
330 |
| 15 |
32 |
320 |
350 |
| 17 |
35 |
350 |
360 |
| 18 |
36 |
360 |
370 |
| 20 |
38 |
380 |
390 |
| 21 |
39 |
390 |
400 |
| 23 |
41 |
410 |
410 |
| 24 |
42 |
420 |
420 |
| 26 |
43 |
430 |
430 |
| 27 |
44 |
440 |
440 |
| 29 |
45 |
450 |
450 |
| 30 |
45 |
450 |
460 |
| 32 |
46 |
460 |
470 |
| 33 |
47 |
470 |
480 |
| 35 |
48 |
480 |
490 |
| 36 |
49 |
490 |
500 |
| 38 |
50 |
500 |
510 |
| 39 |
50 |
500 |
510 |
| 41 |
51 |
510 |
530 |
| 42 |
52 |
520 |
530 |
| 44 |
53 |
530 |
540 |
| 45 |
54 |
540 |
550 |
| 47 |
55 |
550 |
560 |
| 48 |
55 |
550 |
570 |
| 50 |
57 |
570 |
590 |
| 51 |
58 |
580 |
600 |
| 53 |
59 |
590 |
610 |
| 54 |
60 |
600 |
620 |
| 56 |
64 |
640 |
640 |
| 57 |
66 |
660 |
660 |
| 59 |
67 |
670 |
670 |
| 60 |
68 |
680 |
680 |
If any member of the admissions board would like the whole spreadsheet, let
me know. But be forewarned: it is 4 megabyte spreadsheet. That is
large. Older computers might simply refuse to run it.
- Dana