WTPN31 PGTW 011500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 30W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z4 --- NEAR 13.1N5 128.7E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N5 128.7E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 14.5N0 125.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 15.8N4 121.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 17.1N9 119.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z6 --- 18.7N6 117.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z7 --- 23.0N5 120.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 34 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 31.1N5 132.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.4N8 127.8E8. TYPHOON (TY) 30W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 28 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4, 020300Z5, 020900Z1 AND 021500Z8.//