Country/area Deaths
Federated States of Micronesia40
Guam 71
Kiribati 31.5
Marshall Islands 16.5
Nauru 2.5
Northern Mariana Islands 31
Palau 9.5
American Samoa 21.5
Cook Islands 7.5
Niue 1
Samoa 67.5
Tokelau 1
Tonga 41
Tuvalu 4.5
Wallis and Futuna 5.5

Q2 Modeling the Impact of Pandemic Influenza on Pacific Islands • Name:

Nick Wilson,* Osman Mansoor, Douglas Lush, and Tom Kiedrzynski Citation for this article

Many Pacific Island countries and areas have been severely impacted in influenza pandemics. The 1918 pandemic killed substantial proportions of the total population: Fiji ≈5.2%, Tonga ≈4.2% to 8.4%, Guam ≈4.5%, Tahiti ≈10%, and Western Samoa ≈19% to 22% (1,2). Thirty-one influenza pandemics have occurred since the first pandemic in 1580 (3); another one is likely, if not inevitable (4). The potential use of influenza as a bioweapon is an additional concern (5).

The scale of an influenza pandemic may be projected on the basis of the available historical data that have been built into a computer model [statistical simulation using a computer model], e.g., FluAid (6). FluAid uses a deterministic model to estimate the impact range of an influenza pandemic in its first wave. Given the lack of accessible data for specific Pacific Island countries and areas, the default values used in FluAid were used for the proportion of the population in the high-risk category for each age group, for the death rates, hospitalizations, and illness requiring medical consultations. The FluAid model was supplemented by a model of an 8-week pandemic wave and modeling of hospital bed capacity. Further methodologic details are provided in the Appendix.

The results indicate that at incidence rates of 15% and 35%, pandemic influenza would cause 650 and 1,530 deaths, respectively, giving crude death rates of 22 to 52 per 100,000 (Appendix Table). Most deaths (83%) would occur in the high-risk group, 60% of whom would be 1964 years of age, and 22% would be >65 years of age.

The data in the table indicates the number of deaths anticipated as a result of an influenza pandemic in the islands of the Pacific. Use this data to construct a histogram.

BinsFrequencyRelative Frequency f/n
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
Sums:__________________
  1. _________ Determine the sample size n.
  2. _________ Determine the minimum.
  3. _________ Determine the maximum.
  4. _________ Calculate the range.
  5. _________ Determine the bin width. Use 5 bins.
  6. Fill in the following table with the bin upper limits in the first column, the frequencies in the second column
  7. Sketch a histogram of the frequency data on this paper, using the back if necessary.
  8. _________ What is the shape of the distribution?