Yes.  But maybe this is something to dig through in Admissions...
 
Count - Essay Essay






ProjDest
 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Total Result
State cert
 2 203 130 58 20 5 1 419
IEP
37 60 71 30 3
201
National

37 135 142 97 46 457
Total Result 2 240 227 264 192 105 47 1077
Cum. sums: 457 457 457 420 285 143

The first column is the projected destination.  The second row is the essay score.  Note that this data does not include something on the order of 282 unmarked essays in the "set-aside" box.  Hence the differential between the 457 reported above and the 694 I reported on Sunday.  Of the 282 unmarked, 237 are predicted to score a two or higher on the essay and are above the 470 cut-off.
 
The blue band are admissions to the national campus, the orange band are the state campus admissions, and the yellow band are the state campus certificate program admissions.
 
1077 is the number of marked essays.
 
Adding the twos to the mix appears to add only 37 students to the total admitted to the national campus.  So maybe the 2s ought to be sent down to the state campus IEP program.
 
Here below are the 37 who sit on this boundary value position...  It was Damarlane and his ilk that caused me to say: "This year we admit twos who are above 470."  Because we would have admitted them last year when we had no composition.  If we did de-admit them, then they would have to let them retake the essay, especially given that PICS got to practice the essay.  Yes there are PICS students in the table, so I suppose their 2 is a "real" two.  But it would be vindictive to admit Jellisa and not Ken.  By the way, the Cp column is the predicted essay score, you will note their Diff (-erentials) are all negative: they all underperformed their predicted essay score.
 
Seq HS Last First Gen Struct Read Avg Struct7r Read7r Avg7 Sum Cmp Dest ProjDest projcomp Cp Diff 90 95 98 100 MS
4 PATS Damarlane Holden M 35 37 36 620 560 589 72 2 3 3 2 4 -2 3 5 4 2 90
4 KSC Olter Harrison W. M 35 34 34.5 620 530 575 69 2 3 3 2 4 -2 3 5 4 0 90
1 YHS Alfonso McQuade O. M 29 40 34.5 550 590 568 69 2 3 3 2 4 -2 3 6 3 5 90
316 PICS William Ken H. M 25 44 34.5 500 620 563 69 2 3 3 2 4 -2 5 7 6 2 100
18 Mizpah Sonis Jellisa F 31 35 33 570 540 557 66 2 3 3 2 4 -2 2 5 4 4 90
67 YHS Miltrad Clara F 28 34 31 540 530 535 62 2 3 3 2 4 -2 7 9 6 3 100
190 PICS Manuel Immy F 29 31 30 550 500 527 60 2 3 3 2 4 -2 2 0 3 2 90
64 PICS David James M 23 38 30.5 480 570 524 61 2 3 3 2 4 -2 2 5 3 3 90
230 CHS Sikites Jeffry M 34 23 28.5 610 430 519 57 2 2 3 2 3 -1 2 3 1 3 90
6 NICHS Hategalpil Paul M 22 38 30 470 570 518 60 2 3 3 2 4 -2 3 3 2 1 90
75 KHS Talley Jacob D. M 23 35 29 480 540 510 58 2 3 3 2 3 -1 4 6 5 1 90
5 NICHS Hareitip John M 19 39 29 430 580 505 58 2 2 3 2 3 -1 2 3 0 0 90
9 Mizpah Khan Kevlyn F 24 32 28 490 510 502 56 2 3 3 2 3 -1 2 2 1 1 90
18 PLHA Irons Patrick M 25 30 27.5 500 490 499 55 2 3 3 2 3 -1 4 2 2 1 90
11 NICHS Laiwetshib Percyjure F 24 31 27.5 490 500 498 55 2 3 3 2 3 -1 4 3 3 3 90
8 Mizpah Haruo Sainia F 24 30 27 490 490 493 54 2 3 3 2 3 -1 6 1 3 2 95
85 CHS Hartman Hartman M 20 35 27.5 450 540 493 55 2 2 3 2 3 -1 3 1 2 2 90
196 CHS Rachulap Manuel M. M 23 31 27 480 500 492 54 2 3 3 2 3 -1 4 0 3 1 90
29 NICHS Yarofaisiug Morris M 19 36 27.5 430 550 492 55 2 2 3 2 3 -1 1 2 1 3 90
187 CHS Paul Richard II M 25 28 26.5 500 480 490 53 2 3 3 2 3 -1 3 5 1 1 90
162 PICS Ladore Allyleen F 24 29 26.5 490 480 489 53 2 3 3 2 3 -1 4 1 6 1 90
3 Ohwa Micky Rodney M 18 36 27 420 550 486 54 2 2 3 2 3 -1 4 2 3 4 90
245 CHS Suta Sam M 21 32 26.5 460 510 485 53 2 2 3 2 3 -1 0 2 3 1 90
84 Weno Robert Ravin M 26 25 25.5 520 450 482 51 2 2 3 2 3 -1 2 3 2 2 90
109 CHS Johnny Steve S. M 26 25 25.5 520 450 482 51 2 2 3 2 3 -1 2 4 4 1 90
7 CHS Akira Ana F 22 30 26 470 490 482 52 2 3 3 2 3 -1 1 0 2 0 90
1 Ohwa Amor James P. M 26 24 25 520 440 477 50 2 2 3 2 3 -1 1 4 2 2 90
11 Mizpah Killion Peggy Shereen F 22 29 25.5 470 480 477 51 2 3 3 2 3 -1 4 4 1 2 90
5 KSC Palsis Joas T. M 20 31 25.5 450 500 475 51 2 2 3 2 3 -1 4 3 0 1 90
21 PATS Stephen Ranny M 19 32 25.5 430 510 473 51 2 2 3 2 3 -1 5 7 6 3 100
206 CHS Retonong Perleen F 26 23 24.5 520 430 473 49 2 2 3 2 3 -1 0 2 3 0 90
15 YHS Dibay Linda F 20 30 25 450 490 470 50 2 2 3 2 3 -1 1 1 1 1 90
2 NICHS Eseliugoan Rowino M 18 32 25 420 510 468 50 2 2 3 2 3 -1 2 3 1 3 90
17 PLHA Ignacio Meriam F 18 32 25 420 510 468 50 2 2 3 2 3 -1 4 4 3 2 90
71 KHS Sigrah Rosania J. F 20 29 24.5 450 480 465 49 2 2 3 2 3 -1 2 3 4 2 90
23 Berea Sonni Machinta F 16 34 25 400 530 465 50 2 2 3 2 3 -1 2 6 5 2 90
3 Mizpah Benjamin Paulyne F 18 31 24.5 420 500 463 49 2 2 3 2 3 -1 2 1 4 0 90
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From: Jonathan Gourlay
To: Dana Lee Ling ; sjames@comfsm.fm ; voced@comfsm.fm ; rwomack@comfsm.fm ; rchurney@comfsm.fm ; charlesm@comfsm.fm ; thoulagj@comfsm.fm ; pgrandos@comfsm.fm ; comfsmyap@comfsm.fm ; jojo@comfsm.fm ; hrice@mail.fm ; ray@comfsm.fm ; qalex@comfsm.fm ; crgood@comfsm.fm ; gsnider@comfsm.fm ; altonhigashi@mail.fm ; Patty Kelly ; mben@comfsm.fm ; aada@comfsm.fm ; rringlen@comfsm.fm ; rringlen@hotmail.com ; arlened@comfsm.fm ; eddieh@comfsm.fm ; mtatum@comfsm.fm ; bmoses@comfsm.fm ; bastora@comfsm.fm
Sent: Monday, April 07, 2003 8:47 AM
Subject: Re: Predicting the future with an equation: a statistical look atthe COMFSM entrance test

Dana--

This experience is something akin to the one John H. describes in his adventure in crash landing a plane on the open ocean. Thank you for saving us from drowning! Dana is like the little preserver stowed under your seat on the plane.

I need an interpreter -- like just an English version of the equation below.

I don't read the thing correctly -- is it possible to get into "national" campus with a "2" on the essay? A "4" and above should be considered "passing" the essay exam portion of the test. I think. I'd feel more confident about a student who got a 4 or above (legitimately) on the essay and did below average on the test than a student who did well on the test and scored a "2" on the essay.

-Jonathan

on 4/6/03 4:27 PM, Dana Lee Ling at dana@mail.fm wrote:

The answer is:
=IF(OR(AND(OR(AND(Structure>=22;Reading>=27);Sum Of Structure + Reading>=49);Composition (or projected composition)>1);AND(Stucture>=16;Reading>=20;Composition (or projected Composition)>5));3;IF(AND(Structure>=16;Readng>=20;Composition>0);2;1))